NIFTY DAILY

NIFTY
The tight rage in nifty continues and the Bollinger band narrow further which indicates decreasing volatility. However this period of low volatility has been too long and we can expect a fresh increase in volatility and a big move in either direction in coming days.
The nifty on the upper side has made a decent double top and up move will be possible only after a close above 5200-5225.
On he down side there is support at 5000 which is 50DMA and has traditionally provided good support, then there is the lower Bollinger band at 4950 and then a candle support at 4930 thus this area is a confluence area of support and is a strong one.
If we area poised for a breakout then the area between 5000-4900 should not break however if it breaks then consider a temporary end to this uptrend.
NIFTY OI data
The 5200 calls have a big OI of above 65 lac which suggest that 5200 may not be crossed this month and hence longs should try to take profit off table near that levels or once nifty closes below 5100.
5000 puts which have been having high OI till now have shed a bit of OI which suggest a bit of nervousness among put writers. However OI is high and hence shorters should be careful if nifty reaches 5000.