NIFTY DAILY

NIFTY DAILY CHART
The nifty once again bounced off from the trend line, now the trend line support lies at 5019 and below that an important support is there at 4920.the next set of resistance is at 5190 and then at 5242. The 26DMA is also at the trend line which increases the importance of 5019
OI DATA
IN THE MONEY 5100 CE has shown buying and at the same time 5100 PE which is OTM has seen writing which points out to support at 5100 levels in short term. 5000 puts have OI more than 50lac which points out to strong support at those levels. 5200 calls have shown writing which makes 5200a resistance but as seen in this entire series the call writers have been forced to cover their positions as the nifty shown no signs of stopping so as long as nifty hold 5050 levels in the near term there is strong chance that 5200 levels will be taken out.
On Saturday the nifty futures ended in significant discount, however the futures OI showed shedding of OI which points out to long unwinding rather than addition of shorts by the biggies, but the discount remains which may lead to a short covering if nifty moves up on Tuesday.
NIFTY VOLUME DATA
1> NIFTY 50 cash volumes stood at 37.7k CR which was 30 % lower than last weeks which is a dampener on the rise of this week
2> The volumes on the advancing stocks was 26.5k CR which is 70 % of total nifty 50 cash volumes
3> The volumes on the declining stocks was 11.2k CR which is 30% of total nifty 50 cash volumes
The above data at least, shows a +ve bias in the coming days.
From above data and chart the best thing to do would be avoid shorting in the futures in the near term till nifty closes below 5019 and maintain SL for short term FnO longs at 5093 or 5050
Stocks to watch are RIL on close above 2248 ONGC on close above 1267, BHARATI AIRTEL on close above 339, ICICI above 960
My personal view is that as long as nifty holds 5019 there is a strong chance of seeing above 5200 levels in the very near term.