Monday, July 6, 2009

Budget a nonevent ?


Nifty OI data
Puts right from 3800 to 4300 have much more open positions than their corresponding calls. Suggesting that nifty will find strong supports at lower levels of 4100,4200,4300.Now the flip side Calls from 4400 to 4800 levels suggesting that nifty will find resistance at higher levels of 4450-4500-4600.However since puts in the band of 3800-4800 have more OI than Calls the bias should be on +ve side.
Here is more thing adding to the confusion the nifty futures OI saw a decrease suggesting that Fridays rise was more due to short covering rather that creation of fresh longs.
Considering the OI in both puts and Calls the budget most likely will be a “nonevent”
THE CHART VIEW
By any length we are not out of woods as of yet, though pretty close to it. After the golden Monday the nifty proceeded to 4100 odd levels before going to make the high of 4690-4700, taking the fibo ratio of that rise the nifty is slightly above the 50% distance, and is also very close to a levels which earlier acted as support and recently acted as resistance( marked in circles in the chart).
It seems like Strength will be found only above 4500 and weakness is ready below 4200-4100.
BTW BUDGET= Bloody underhand device to get everything taxed

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